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Thread: *** OFFICIAL *** MLB 2019 Thread

  1. #81
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Wrong thread, drunky
    nope, chosen purposefully
    faggot
    Nothing is more obvious today than the single inability of capital and private enterprise to take care of themselves unaided by the state; they are all the while besieging legislatures for relief from their own incompetency, and "pleading the baby act" through a trained body of lawyers and lobbyists.

    Lester Frank Ward

    "When people see some things as good, other things become bad"
    Lao Tzu

    Asked if he had every prayed, christopher Hitchens replied
    "once, for a hardon"


  2. #82
    Canadrunk limitles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    Wrong thread, drunky
    One more thing bitch (had to clarify as faggot is a meaningless term) I can remain sober longer than you and I will come to you to prove it,
    for a price. That price is a simple bet. Even money.
    You get what I mean I hope. I can take more than you or anyone I've known. Whether you want to infer "more than" as sobriety or the opposite is irrelevant.

    I hope you get the sarcastic viewpoint here. If I started a 2019 Canadian Curling Tour draft thread, I would expect some heat. I'll leave you idiots to it but Jesus fucking Costanza it's pitiful
    Last edited by limitles; 12-21-2018 at 09:07 PM.
    Nothing is more obvious today than the single inability of capital and private enterprise to take care of themselves unaided by the state; they are all the while besieging legislatures for relief from their own incompetency, and "pleading the baby act" through a trained body of lawyers and lobbyists.

    Lester Frank Ward

    "When people see some things as good, other things become bad"
    Lao Tzu

    Asked if he had every prayed, christopher Hitchens replied
    "once, for a hardon"


  3. #83
    looks like the market has cooled on the harper $400-500M deal that seemed pretty inevitable before last year...

    phillies owner said he'd spend stupid this offseason...he'd be smart to keep some of the powder dry and make that kinda offer to trout in 2021...trout might want to stay out west, who knows but the phillies should try it...ive mentioned before ive never seen anything like the traffic going into philly when the angels came to town a few years back...was fucking crazy...

    supposedly the phillies are in the kluber market...would help solve the pitching problems...add harper's bat and you might have something...fuck machado...you think youre gonna get MORE hustle outta a guy after he signs a $20-25/year deal? like the beckham deal with the gaints...they had to, but now they gotta put up with his drama queen bullshit for the next 3-5 years...

  4. #84
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    I'm confused about the Dodgers deal today.

    Kemp is due $21.5m in 2019, and that's it. Dodgers are already on the hook for $3.5m of that from the Kemp-to-SD trade, and they also assumed responsibility for $7m more here. So the Dodgers are only saving $11m by unloading him.

    Alex Wood is in his final year of arbitration. It's estimated that he will get about $10m.

    Yasiel Puig's 7-year deal with the Dodgers ended in 2018, but they had control of him for one more year, in arbitration. It's estimated that he would get about $11m.

    Kyle Farmer would get something around $550k. For salary purposes, he is a non-factor, since he will be replaced by another player making the Major League minimum, thus a wash.

    The Dodgers are getting two mediocre prospects, plus Homer Bailey who will be released.

    Bailey is owed $23 million for 2019 and $25 million for 2020, but can be bought out of 2020 for $5 million. This means the Dodgers will eat $28 million by buying out his 2020 and then releasing him.

    In real money savings, the Dodgers aren't getting very much. They shipped off about $32m in projected salary and received $28m back (of which $23m has to be paid this year).

    However, the difference is that the Dodgers will only take a $17.5m luxury tax hit for the Bailey buyout in 2019, while shedding $32m, meaning that they are saving about $14.5m in luxury tax overall.

    This still doesn't leave them with enough room to sign Harper without going over the 2019 luxury tax threshold, so I don't completely understand this deal.

    They also save a piddling $4 million overall in the entire affair, ignoring the luxury tax implications.

    At the same time, they lose 3 players who would have had real value on the 2019 roster, and get no one useful in return.

    Yes, I understand that the Dodgers needed to clear an OF spot if they wanted to go after Harper. Yes, I know the Dodgers were unlikely to want to re-sign Wood in 2020. Yes, I know Puig has been a headache during his tenure with the Dodgers. Yes, I know that Matt Kemp is unlikely to repeat his first half of 2018, and could be a liability in 2019.

    Still, I would think Puig and Wood still had enough trade value (especially Wood) to where the Dodgers could have found a team to take these three payers WITHOUT returning a contract albatross like Bailey.

    Had Bailey not been part of the deal, this would have made sense, even with the Dodgers shipping $7m cash to cover part of Kemp's salary. The Dodgers would shed $32m in salary, and get rid of players who aren't likely to be Dodgers in 2020 anyway. This would clear enough cap room to where they could sign Harper and not go over.

    The trade where Kemp was acquired in 2018 made a lot more sense, as it was an exchange of bad contracts, but it allowed the Dodgers to get under the cap that year.

    Here the Dodgers won't be under the cap if they sign Harper, AND they are giving away useful players while not receiving anyone useful in return (or even any good prospects).

    In short, I'm not a fan of this trade.

    BTW, if Harper doesn't come to LA, there's still a contingency plan.

    Recall that the Dodgers got unexpected production from Max Muncy, and need to fit him into their starting lineup in 2019. With no Harper, they will put Muncy at 1B, move Bellinger to OF (where he actually plays pretty well), and then round out the outfield with Joc Pederson and some platoon of Andrew Toles/Kike Hernandez/Alex Verdugo. Then Chris Taylor will be moved to 2B, and they'll worry about catcher a bit later, perhaps just filling it with a junk player from within until Keibert Ruiz is ready in 2020. Alternately, Taylor and Hernandez could swap, with Taylor being OF and Hernandez being 2B.

    So the starting position players would look like:

    C ???
    1B Muncy
    2B Taylor / Hernandez
    3B Turner
    SS Seager
    LF Pederson
    CF Bellinger
    RF Toles/Verdugo/Hernandez/Taylor

    Starting pitching-wise, they'd have:
    Kershaw
    Buehler
    Hill
    Ryu
    Maeda / Urias

    Relieving, they'd have:
    Maeda/ Urias
    Floro
    Fields
    Alexander
    Baez
    Kelly
    Jansen

    On the bench, they'd have:
    Some backup catcher
    Freese
    Toles
    Verdugo
    Some middle infieder

    So they had enough depth to where they could still field a good team, even without a major signing.

    Is this a championship team, as constructed? Probably not. Is it good enough to win the NL West again? Most likely.

    But keep in mind that Walker Buehler is still getting better, Julio Urias was pretty damn good in October and may finally be ready to live up to the previous hype, and Corey Seager is coming back.

    I'm still not understanding why they'd sign the moderately expensive Kelly when they already had plenty of middle relief, if the goal is to get under the cap. But sometimes the Dodgers front office really confuses me.

  5. #85
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    I think it was a smart move by the Dodgers, but you cant really judge it until the moves that come afterwards happen. But for now, besides the soft-cap money games, the trade is about maximizing value. Kemp (despite his decent first 2 months last year) and Bailey are nothings with negative trade value. Puig and Wood are final year rentals. So ultimately the question Friedman asks himself is "Are we going to extend either of these guys?". We've known the answer on Puig for years now. Wood....meh, good player but they have depth there. Might as well get some prospects. Any team with continued success is gonna struggle to keep a decent system without making moves like this.

    Downs and Gray aren't exactly nothing either. High picks with some upside, just young. Those are about the best "decent" prospects you'll get. The Vlad jr's of the game aint getting traded anymore, unless there is Chris Sale or the like going back.

    For the future moves, if I were a Dodger fan, i'd prefer they sign Pollock and then trade for either Realmuto or Kluber/Bauer than sign Harper.

  6. #86
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gut View Post
    I think it was a smart move by the Dodgers, but you cant really judge it until the moves that come afterwards happen. But for now, besides the soft-cap money games, the trade is about maximizing value. Kemp (despite his decent first 2 months last year) and Bailey are nothings with negative trade value. Puig and Wood are final year rentals. So ultimately the question Friedman asks himself is "Are we going to extend either of these guys?". We've known the answer on Puig for years now. Wood....meh, good player but they have depth there. Might as well get some prospects. Any team with continued success is gonna struggle to keep a decent system without making moves like this.

    Downs and Gray aren't exactly nothing either. High picks with some upside, just young. Those are about the best "decent" prospects you'll get. The Vlad jr's of the game aint getting traded anymore, unless there is Chris Sale or the like going back.

    For the future moves, if I were a Dodger fan, i'd prefer they sign Pollock and then trade for either Realmuto or Kluber/Bauer than sign Harper.
    I agree with a lot of this (including the preference of Kluber and another good player over Harper), but I disagree that Kemp/Bailey is just a bad contract swap. Not really a fan of Pollock at this point, btw. Too injury prone.

    Dodgers are picking up $28m worth of completely dead money in Bailey (he has to be released, according to agreement), and are only sending away $11m in semi-dead money with Kemp. I'll agree Kemp isn't worth $11m, but he's not worthless. Puig and Wood are final year guys at this point, but they're good enough (Puig especially) to where they had positive trade value.

    If the purpose was to clear space, they could have done better.

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I'm confused about the Dodgers deal today.


    So the starting position players would look like:

    C ???
    1B Muncy
    2B Taylor / Hernandez
    3B Turner
    SS Seager
    LF Pederson
    CF Bellinger
    RF Toles/Verdugo/Hernandez/Taylor

    Starting pitching-wise, they'd have:
    Kershaw
    Buehler
    Hill
    Ryu
    Maeda / Urias

    Relieving, they'd have:
    Maeda/ Urias
    Floro
    Fields
    Alexander
    Baez
    Kelly
    Jansen

    On the bench, they'd have:
    Some backup catcher
    Freese
    Toles
    Verdugo
    confused i'll say--you missed Caleb Ferguson as a relief pitcher, Austin Barnes as starting catcher (for now), and counted both Toles & Verdugo as RF & bench players....

    still, your points about seeming senselessness of the trade are well taken
    Last edited by GrenadaRoger; 12-22-2018 at 06:27 PM.
    (long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)

  8. #88
    Your idiots at Caesars have posted MLB win totals futures today Druff.

    Just think about the prudence of setting a line now. Harper, Machado, Kluber etc etc.

    To get your mind right I suggest you read some Dodgers porn. These guys LIKE the Dodgers. I am unencumbered by that problem.

    Dodgersway.com Dodgers: Time to Change the Strategy and get Aggressive

    https://dodgersway.com/2019/01/08/do...ange-strategy/

    You and I learned something about ownership recently. Whose money this really is and why value is more than just a fashion statement in LA. It’s fiduciary responsibility. No one likes prison.

    Anyway, I made money on Dodgers under last year. You didn’t. You have another chance.

    Caesars set the Dodgers line at 95. Lol.

    My Vegas proxy is gone. Maybe you can buy me some.

    Beats clipping coupons. yw
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-09-2019 at 02:33 PM.

  9. #89
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Your idiots at Caesars have posted MLB win totals futures today Druff.

    Just think about the prudence of setting a line now. Harper, Machado, Kluber etc etc.

    To get your mind right I suggest you read some Dodgers porn. These guys LIKE the Dodgers. I am unencumbered by that problem.

    Dodgersway.com Dodgers: Time to Change the Strategy and get Aggressive
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/dodgers...-strategy/amp/

    You and I learned something about ownership recently. Whose money this really is and why value is more than just a fashion statement in LA. It’s fiduciary responsibility. No one likes prison.

    Anyway, I made money on Dodgers under last year. You didn’t. You have another chance.

    Caesars set the Dodgers line at 95. Lol.

    My Vegas proxy is gone. Maybe you can buy me some.

    Beats clipping coupons. yw
    First blush - cardinals and Phillies overs.

  10. #90
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    As constructed, Dodgers probably are under 95 wins but not by a lot. I'd say a more fair line is 93. They still win the division, barring a surprising season from the Dbacks or Rockies.

    They lack depth now since that stupid trade. Injuries can kill them this year if they happen.

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    As constructed, Dodgers probably are under 95 wins but not by a lot. I'd say a more fair line is 93. They still win the division, barring a surprising season from the Dbacks or Rockies.

    They lack depth now since that stupid trade. Injuries can kill them this year if they happen.
    The number is not 93 but 88.

    Left side of infield is going to be awful. Much worse than recently. This is just one example. There is an element of hope (Harper/Kluber) that is built in and I will happily fade that.

    If the Dodgers give the blind kid 10 years I’ll piss myself laughing. Dodgers will have to get the MLB to allow a service dog in the outfield.

    I got down. Caesars only taking $1000. This is just CZR promotional game playing. Not a serious offering.

    Free money though
    Last edited by Sanlmar; 01-10-2019 at 11:11 AM.

  12. #92
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    The number is not 93 but 88.

    Left side of infield is going to be awful. Much worse than recently. This is just one example. There is an element of hope (Harper/Kluber) that is built in and I will happily fade that.

    If the Dodgers give the blind kid 10 years I’ll piss myself laughing.

    I got down. Caesars only taking $1000. This is just CZR promotional game playing. Not a serious offering.

    Free money though
    Left side of the infield is Turner/Seager. What's wrong with that?

    Honestly the real Achilles heel of the team is potential injury and lack of depth to cover it.

    They do have 7 guys who can be starting pitchers: Kershaw, Buehler, Hill, Ryu, Maeda, Urias, and Stripling. So even if two of those guys are injured, they're okay.

    Offensively, they'll have problems if they experience injuries, unless they either get some surprising production out of Verdugo/Toles, or unless they come up with another Chris Taylor or Max Muncy who contributes big unexpectedly.

    Speaking of Muncy, he's a candidate for regression, as are Joc Pederson and Kike Hernandez. Also, we don't fully know yet what to expect of Seager.

    I still think this team is good enough to win the NL West, as constructed at the moment.

  13. #93
    Pete Seager had TJ. He will not be better than before. Especially at the plate. I will book mark this post. You will be seeing it a lot.

    Turner is aging badly and his mobility was comical last year. I think there is a prospect out there who may take over. Vague memory.

    Kike is magical. Has hurt me more than any Dodger.

    Pitching - Buehler, Urias could be special and carry an otherwise very average lineup

  14. #94
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Pete Seager had TJ. He will not be better than before. Especially at the plate. I will book mark this post. You will be seeing it a lot.

    Turner is aging badly and his mobility was comical last year. I think there is a prospect out there who may take over. Vague memory.

    Kike is magical. Has hurt me more than any Dodger.

    Pitching - Buehler, Urias could be special and carry an otherwise very average lineup
    Turner was a little above average defensively in 2018, according to advanced metrics: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...01-field.shtml

    He will be 34 for the entire 2019 season, but he hit at a high level for the past 5 seasons, and hasn't shown much sign of regression. It probably helps that he was only a part time player until 2015, thus preventing as much wear on his body. Most players peak around 27 and then start a slow decline. Turner has been an exception.

    Urias was a very pleasant surprise in October. He came back from a season-long injury (one which extended from the season before) and major surgery, and I figured he was a has-been before even getting going. Even when healthy, he was inconsistent at the ML level.

    Then he looked excellent -- pretty much exactly the pitcher the Dodgers had hoped he would be. This was in relief, but still.

    If Urias and Buehler kick ass in 2019, that alone should probably be enough to hand the Dodgers the NL West, and perhaps more.

  15. #95
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Two much-maligned 2018 Dodgers have signed with other teams.'

    Yasmani Grandal has signed with the Brewers. He had a horrid postseason in both 2017 and 2018, and simply seems to be worn down by the time October comes.

    Brian Dozier, once thought to be the Dodgers' solution at 2B when they almost acquired him a few years ago, finally made it to the team in mid-2018, and was pretty much an automatic out. He signed with the Nationals.

    Manny Machokedo is also clearly not returning to LA.

  16. #96
    Love the Brewers. They were one game alway against Dodgers and would have matched up better against Sawks in WS

    Dodgers down to 94 wins from 95 - more coming as front office reality hits the public

    Diamondbacks and Rockies both rose. Padres fell

  17. #97
    All Sorts of Sports gut's Avatar
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    I am imagining Druff seeing a headline reading "Dodgers trade for catcher" and then the gigantic sigh when seeing it was for Martin and not Realmuto.

  18. #98
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Manny Machokedo has an 8-year offer from the awful White Sox. Does he take it? Depends if he cares about being on a good team.

    Right now Philadelphia has become the favorite to grab Harper, with the Nationals second. The Dodgers are third, but it is starting to look less likely.

  19. #99
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Love the Brewers. They were one game alway against Dodgers and would have matched up better against Sawks in WS

    Dodgers down to 94 wins from 95 - more coming as front office reality hits the public

    Diamondbacks and Rockies both rose. Padres fell
    Brewers still have a starting pitching problem.

    They don't have anything resembling an ace.

    Projected rotation is Chacin/Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Nelson. Believe it or not, Nelson is the one with the potential to have "ace" stuff, but so far he's been inconsistent and is coming off of a lost season due to injury.

    They have a killer bullpen -- Hader, Knebel, Burnes, Jeffress... but the NL Central is going to be a real dogfight again.

  20. #100
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Still no signing of Harper or Machado.

    People are wondering why.

    Kris Bryant, perhaps seeing the writing on the wall when his own free agency comes up, is frustrated: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...-manny-machado

    So is Evan Longoria:

    A post shared by on

     

    https://instagram.com/p/BsyUZScney4/






    So why is this?

    My theory is that two factors are coming together to push teams away from Harper and Machado.

    The first is the general reluctance these days for teams to sink huge money into free agents for many years, even when they're only 26 like Harper and Machado. Teams are coming around to believe that developing young talent and then plugging holes with short contracts is the much more prudent way to go, as it carries far less risk.

    But there's more to it.

    The other problem is simply that neither player is a sure thing.

    Machado killed his own value while with the Dodgers, showing everyone how he doesn't care about hustling, and also didn't perform particularly well with the team, especially in the postseason. Machado was supposed to be a game changer for the Dodgers, but they seemed to win the NL in spite of him, not because of him. The other problem is that he's only a .282 lifetime hitter with a career .822 OPS. Good numbers, sure, but not spectacular. And while he could have extra value playing shortstop, the problem is that nobody knows if he's any good at the position. He sucked at SS with the Orioles, but was actually very good with the Dodgers. I think Manny's hustling issues and other potential baggage pulls down his value enough to where he's simply not all that exciting to bring into any squad, especially because his offensive numbers are good rather than great.

    Bryce Harper has battled recent injury problems AND has hit under .250 for two of the past three seasons. He seems to also choke under pressure (which also seems to plague Machado, from what we've seen). Harper also doesn't have a particularly easygoing personality, and there's some concern about his effect on the clubhouse. While I believe Harper has a lot more potential superstar upside than Machado, he's also a big injury risk for any team giving him huge money, and it's also hard to justify throwing $300m+ on a guy who hit sub-.250 in two of the past three years. Also, his defense has declined, for some reason.

    Bottom line is both of these guys are useful players, but they're not worth breaking the bank over at this point. If either were super-elite once-in-a-generation hitters, they'd be getting the gigantic paycheck they had hoped for. But both guys are flawed, and nobody wants to invest THAT much money on them.


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